There was a time this year when it looked like the end of Missouri’s “Arch Rivalry” game with Illinois would be immaterial. After all, Missouri was a lock to go to the Big 10, right? If they were to end up in the Big 10, they’d almost certainly play Illinois every year.

That move to the Big 10 never happened, so Saturday’s season opener against Illinois will be the last time the two teams play for the foreseeable future.

In the three years prior to the first “Arch Rivalry” game in 2007, Illinois had won a total of seven games while not finishing above 10th in the Big 10 in any of those seasons. Missouri played and defeated Illinois in 2002 and 2003, and in both of those years, Illinois failed to finish with a record above .500

Expect to see more opponents like Bowling Green on Missouri's non-conference schedule in the fufure. (Photo by Ross Taylor)

While Illinois won nine games and made a Rose Bowl appearance in 2007, they weren’t expected to see anything close to the kind of success Ron Zook & Co. saw that season. Illinois was expected to succeed in 2008, as they entered the season ranked No. 20 in the AP poll.

That success never materialized, as Illinois fell back below .500 in 2008 with a 5-7 record. And 2009 saw just three wins for Illinois.

Given Gary Pinkel’s comments at Monday’s media day, he’d rather play an Illinois team that’s down rather than a strong, competitive squad.

Pinkel’s note about how the BCS doesn’t take into account strength of schedule is particularly interesting given Missouri’s next two out-of-conference BCS opponents.

Both Arizona State (2011-2012 home-and-home) and Indiana (2013-2014 home-and-home) will be challenges for Missouri given that they’re both from “big six” BCS conferences.

Arizona State has a better recent history than Indiana, going 33-29 over the last five years, including a share of the Pac 10 title in 2007. But ASU finished 2008 and 2009 with five and four wins, respectively and was tabbed to finish ninth in the Pac 10 in the 2010 preseason poll.

Indiana hasn’t had a lot of success recently, save their emotional run to the Insight Bowl in 2007—the same year coach Terry Hoeppner died of a brain tumor. The Hoosiers haven’t been ranked in an AP poll since 1994 and has gone 23-37 over the last five years.

Again, Arizona State and Indiana (more so Arizona State) aren’t locks to be down-trodden programs when Missouri begins playing each respective team. This isn’t a post trying to disrespect either program, but at the moment, both programs are at least a rung below Missouri on the FBS program ladder.

While neither Pinkel nor Mike Alden will say directly say it, because of their belief that the BCS format doesn’t favor teams that play difficult non-conference schedules, Missouri will be playing Arizona State and Indiana in the next four years.

Again, the point cannot be driven home enough that programs can see seismic changes in a short amount of time. There’s no way to be 100 percent certain that Arizona State or Indiana will still be a step below Missouri in one, two, three, four years. But given their recent histories, an educated guess can be made on Arizona State being about a step below Missouri and Indiana more than that.

It’s hard to blame Missouri for adding two programs that aren’t on its level, either. Pinkel also mentioned that Missouri would be playing one extra BCS program when the Big 12 goes to a nine-game conference schedule after Nebraska and Colorado leave the conference. So adding a mid-to-top-tier program wouldn’t accomplish a whole lot given that the team’s schedule will get more difficult beginning in 2012.

Obviously, this analysis is isn’t delving into the monetary aspect of non-conference scheduling—which plays a significant role. But in the future, don’t look for Missouri to schedule programs that are expected to be above their level.